Is Jordan's King Abdullah II being compelled to wage war on Israel?
Jordan officials Monday accused Israel of declaring war on the Hashemite Kingdom by displacing “Palestinians” from Gaza.
“Israel’s attempt to forcefully displace the Palestinians constitutes a declaration of war on Jordan,” Jordan Government Communications Minister Muhannad Mubaidin told Egypt’s Al Qahera News.
“The government of Israel is far-right and believes that genocide and killing constitute self-defense,” Mubaidin added, according to the Jewish Press.
International policy analysts say the statement is an escalation in Jordan’s saber-rattling against Israel, which King Abdullah II hopes will redirect domestic unrest over the country’s economic crisis.
According to official figures, Jordan suffers from more than 22% unemployment, including 50% of youth, though the actual numbers are expected to be higher. Gasoline and food prices have been surging, and the country’s public debt is now estimated to be 110% of its GDP.
At the same time, King Abdullah II enjoys authoritarian power over the civilian government after amending the Constitution twice to that effect, most recently in 2022. Since Abdullah II assumed power in 1999, the Jordanian government has gone through 13 prime ministers and 19 different governments.
This instability has led to effective strikes and violent protests which have bared teeth. In 2018 nationwide strikes toppled then-Prime Minister Hani Mulki and his cabinet. In December last year, protestors killed a police officer and injured several others.
Abdullah, unable to subdue the population through mass slaughter like his father King Hussein in 1970, has been hoping to distract the public with anti-Israel braggadocio. Last month Jordan Prime Minister Bisher Khasawneh announced the country had increased its military presence on its border with Israel to warn Israel against displacing “Palestinians” and sending them to Jordan. On November 1st the country recalled its ambassador to Israel and barred Israel’s ambassador from the country.
Jordan’s supposed outrage over Israel’s evacuation of “Palestinians” to protect them from war in Gaza is based on the fact that the majority of Jordan’s population identifies as Palestinian.
In 1967 Jordan lost Judea and Samaria to Israel during the Six Day War. Egypt lost the Gaza Strip. Globalists, backed by Muslim countries and eventually Israel’s government, declared all three areas to be the “State of Palestine.” This made their inhabitants “Palestinians,” even though Muslims in Judea and Samaria had been considered Jordanians before the war.
But Jordan and Egypt have sworn not to accept evacuees from Gaza. On October 17th Abdullah said the issue of accepting more Muslims from Israel was a “red line” for Jordan and Egypt.
Geert Wilders, whose Party for Freedom (PVV) recently won a landslide in Dutch elections and is likely the country’s next prime minister, recently declared that Jordan is the true “State of Palestine” and that “Palestinians” ought to live there.
Middle East experts told Frontline News that King Abdullah II is worried that the “Jordan is Palestine” campaign might gain support and pressure will be brought to bear on him to take in Muslim “refugees.”
But the king’s plan to redirect the populace’s anger away from him and toward Israel has worked too well. Jordanians, fueled by the country’s aggressive stance toward Israel after the October 7th massacre, are now protesting the government’s relations with Israel which have been keeping Jordan from complete economic collapse.
A grassroots campaign called “Mesh Dafe” — “I’m not paying” — is urging Jordanians to boycott the copious amounts of natural gas and water Israel regularly supplies to Jordan by refusing to pay their water and energy bills. Campaigners have also been urging Jordanians to oppose a deal between the two countries signed in 2021 in which Jordan would supply Israel with solar energy in return for desalinated water.
The pressure has begun to bear fruit. Last month Amman pulled out of the energy-for-water deal “to support the Palestinian people.”
But continued pressure to boycott Israeli resources — particularly water, on which Jordan is highly dependent — will plunge the country deeper into an economic crisis. King Abdullah II, facing a more desperate, angrier population, will be forced to double down on the saber-rattling to avoid being overthrown.
The king is running out of room for posturing, however, and may soon be compelled to wage war on Israel. Monday’s accusation of Israel “declaring war” on Jordan can be seen not as Middle Eastern chest-beating but a signal that Abdullah is out of options.
If war occurs, a decision by Israel to withhold its resources from Jordan could end in disaster for the Hashemite Kingdom.
