Do protests work? Of course — but for whom?

Three weeks ago, Frontline News reported on massive protests taking place in Japan against the WHO treaty and the super-warp-speed “vaccines” their government appears intent on producing. The protests garnered virtually zero media attention, although one site did attempt to “debunk” the size of the protests.

To date, the Japanese government has shown no sign of taking into account either the protestors or the views of hundreds of thousands of citizens who agree with them. Meanwhile, on the Japanese street, the next big thing has already hit in the shape of pro-Gaza demonstrations, which, to the contrary, are receiving plenty of media coverage.

So, is there any point in protesting, with or without media coverage?

You want to change the world? Well, you can try…

Judging by the results of one large and recent study, the anti-WHO protest was virtually doomed to fail. Researchers investigated over a dozen mass movements with sweeping goals to see how many of them achieved success, and discovered that only one could claim to have done so.

The study's authors used social media and other internet data, as well as surveys, to determine how public opinion altered following the mass protests. The protests they focused on included the various Women's Marches, the Impeach Trump campaign, Families Belong Together, and the George Floyd protests. The only campaign which they found to have significant impact was the George Floyd/Black Lives Matter movement.

… the only movement that had a discernible political impact was Black Lives Matter. All the others led to spikes in tweets and Google searches but left no real mark on public opinion. 

Ten days of glory

Although it may seem at the time they take place that huge protests have a correspondingly huge impact, based on all the attention they garner, the study found that this effect was very short-lived:

We find that most protests generate significant online activity …  protests coincide with large increases in online interest, as measured by tweets and Google searches containing keywords related to the topic of the movement … but [this is] relatively short-lived: online interest decreases to baseline levels about ten days after the beginning of the social movement [emphasis added].

Does a protest with no media coverage make a sound?

Among their observations of the BLM movement, the study's authors noted that it was not at all the largest movement documented:

However, it is important to note that BLM was not the only large movement in our database. In fact, it was not even the largest: the 2017 Women’s March, the 2018 Women’s March, and the 2018 March for Our Lives protests in favor of gun control all mobilized a greater number of participants according to the CCC database. Yet, none of them consistently affected attitudes and political behavior beyond short-term increases in tweets and Google searches.

And they suggested that rather than sheer numbers being the determining factor, it could be the attention given by the media:

One possible explanation is that this movement stood out due to its intense coverage in traditional and social media.

Less than half of all protests achieve anything at all

Given that most media outlets can't be cajoled into covering whatever protest one happens to organize, what is the average demonstrator to do if he wants results?

According to a second study, being focused on what you want to achieve can increase the chances for success, and it helps even more if you have some kind of leverage.

This study followed hundreds of protests over a 14-year period, all over the world, and came to the conclusion that less than half of them could claim any kind of achievement:

… our research shows that 42% of protests resulted in some kind of demonstrable achievement.

Furthermore, what they called an “achievement” was often extremely partial, or even quite minor:

… in the period 2006–2020 there were many protests against GMOs and Monsanto. In 2013, one of the biggest global protests had a clear demand: stop GMOs. Eventually, the objective of this protest movement was achieved in Mexico, although not in other countries. 

Keep it simple if you want to succeed

Success was seen to a degree following protests that highlighted clearly delineated issues, for example in Chile where protesters demanded and received a new constitution; in various countries where the resignation of a leader was demanded and granted; in several countries where large labor protests achieved wage rises; in other places where infrastructure projects were halted or stalled.

The study also found that protests involving a material or other significant loss for those being targeted were more successful, although this was less true for demonstrations that involved vandalism and/or looting:

In terms of the methods of protest, the most successful—although not the most frequent—are merchant’s strikes, with a 75% achievement rate (e.g., Iran’s merchants achieving a reduction in the gold tax) followed by whistleblowing and leaks (71%), hacking (64%), and boycotts (63%). On the other hand, the less successful methods are general assemblies (23%), street theater (30%), noise making/pot banging (31%), educational actions (34%) and Twitter storms (36%). Vandalism/looting and violence only show a 43% success rate…

Baby steps, especially under repressive regimes

Protests demanding more sweeping changes such as “civil rights” were less likely to achieve their goals, the study found, and even when achievements were claimed, they were usually very modest:

Civil rights also have an achievement rate of 42%; for example, after years of activism, in 2019 in Iran a law was passed stipulating hard penalties for acid attacks; in Saudi Arabia women were officially allowed to vote in 2015 and to drive in 2018; in Senegal, women could vote in the 2015 elections; in Pakistan in a 2006 law, protestors achieved the removal of zina (fornication crime) and the end of rape victims being prosecuted for adultery; in India education quotas for lower castes were preserved in 2006…

China versus the United States

The more powerful the institutions being protested against, the less likely it was that the protests achieved anything at all:

The more structural and distant the opponents are, the more difficult they are to fight, as we can see in the case of groups like the G20, the financial sector in a country, the IMF, or the ECB. When it comes to structural issues like free-trade, inequality, imperialism, distant elites, and the military, all protests against them have relatively low achievement rates. 

One intriguing exception was cited by the study's authors who described the differing outcomes of protests in China versus the United States:

Protests against governments (both national and local), religious authorities, employers and corporations, have higher rates of success. Interestingly, a majority of protests against the Chinese government, normally on concrete issues, have a greater chance of achieving some result (65%), than those against the United States, which have only a 23% chance of success.

“Awareness” as an achievement

Nonetheless, the study did note that there are certain “intangible successes” that often result from protests, such as increased awareness:

… several of the achievements identified in the research relate to changes in public debates. This is an intangible success that however can have a significant impact in reframing debates and bringing issues into the global political agenda. This type of achievement should not be overlooked. Three examples illustrate this. The first one is Occupy Wall Street (2011), in which citizens protested against Wall Street bailouts, denounced inequality and the privileges of the financial sector in shaping the political agenda. The famous motto “We are the 99%” became a slogan heard in many parts of the world, pushing the inequality agenda to center stage. The second one is the UK Uncut (2011) movement, which also emerged during the 2008 financial crisis, denouncing austerity cuts and unfair tax practices of multinational corporations. This movement gave a push to the tax justice agenda. Lastly the #MeToo and #NiUnaMenos movements linked to women’s rights have set the agenda on gender justice and have encouraged girls and women all over the world to stand up for their rights [emphasis added].

Don't open the gates to violence

Awareness, of course, can be achieved in many ways, and some are more effective than others. Knowing that injustice or corruption exists is important; knowing what can be realistically done to address it is far more critical.

As recent history has shown, protests organized by conservatives often end up playing into the hands of those who seek to malign them. With the power of government and academia behind them, these elements harness the media to present conservative demonstrators as violent extremists, based on the behavior of a few (with those few conservatives often following the lead of agent provocateurs from the government or Marxist groups), leading many conservatives to advise against any participation in protests:

Even if we could have pressure from above, taking to the streets is not the way to go … The media will make us look ineffective, as if only a few people are involved … Worse, they will show only the most outrageous [protesters] as examples of the entire crowd…

Art Thompson, former Chairman of The John Birch Society, finds just one use for protests - recruitment:

Sometimes members attend rallies and carefully planned demonstrations to find prospects, however. Potential members can be found by passing out literature and talking to people.

It only works for them

Thompson says that protestors for freedom should not expect the same results enjoyed by collectivists:

[Leftist protestors] use a two-prong pincer movement of pressure from above and pressure from below … by getting their minions into the street, which is the bottom pincer, while at the same time pushing down from above with the media, academia and government. The Right does not have the same effect since we do not control, or even have, a free media. [1:25-1:53].

What to do?

Thompson instead encourages conservatives to “go directly to the people and that is in their homes.” This is how to build a truly grassroots revolution built on people who understand what they're fighting for, not people who only understand that they are fighting. 

To illustrate his point, he recounts a story involving Congressman Larry McDonald, who was himself a former chairman of The John Birch Society:

There was once a large anti-forced-busing demonstration in Washington, D.C. Many who attended tried to see their U.S. representative who, conveniently, wasn’t available. Feeling rebuffed, they decided to call on Rep. McDonald since they knew he shared their opposition to the busing scheme.

After a brief visit, McDonald pointed out that each of them had spent considerable resources over three days coming and going to the nation’s capital. In addition to travel expenses, they paid for two nights in hotel rooms and several meals, only to be rejected by their representative and to receive little mention in the media.

If, however, they had taken the same amount of time and money and used it to doorbell their neighborhoods and create understanding among their fellow citizens, they would have accomplished far more…